DAY ONE - 1st December 2021
Where we got to; Review of first two sessions (16th June and 16th September)
Keynote address: t.b.a.
Panel 4: Technological Options for Now and the Future
Having established the nature and seriousness of the challenges facing aviation and climate change, Panel 4 turns to how new technologies can help to address them, both now and over the coming decade. An important technology will be SAFs, now being used in a limited way. How expensive will they be over the decade to produce and implement? Will aircraft design improvements make much of a contribution? Electric and hydrogen aircraft will not make any impact this decade – will they? The Panel also identifies and contrasts the operational measures which can be taken by aircraft and airport operators to lessen carbon emissions and in particular non CO2 impacts such as contrails and cruise NOx.
Panel 5: What should the regulators do?
Sub session A: Market Based Instruments
Airlines will not reduce emissions and use the new technologies unless they are given an incentive to do so. The incentive could be a negative incentive (a tax) or a positive incentive (a subsidy to use SAFs). The ETS is the established framework in Europe. But is it working for aviation? What are the relative merits of ticket taxes, which are used in many countries, and fuel taxes, which are ubiquitous in the US but still absent in Europe. What are the upsides of taxes versus an ETS? And the downsides of taxes (jobs?). What about earmarking tax revenues for R&D? What’s the best and most effective way to reduce emissions in the short and long run?
Sub session B: Command & Control
Rather than rely on the market, governments can legislate to compel industry to act. Several options are being tried and more suggested. One of these is mandating the use of SAFs, which has started in Norway What are their pros and cons, and how do they compare to fuel taxes? The implementation of CORSIA has been stopped by the Covid-19 crisis, but what are the chances of it being an effective means of reducing emissions? What are the advantages and disadvantages of limits to airport development, and bans on short haul flights, as being implemented in France?
Panel 6: Policy Instruments: Industry
Industry want to/already play a critical role in designing and implementing policies. But will they act only if someone else pays? Are they realistic about the scale of the problem, or are they understating it? Does the Destination 2050 roadmap constitute a contribution or a dead end? Is industry’s opposition to tax measures justified?
Panel 7: The Role of R and D Economics
Many of the technologies which are expected to have a major role do not exist, or in their infancy. There will need sustained R&D to develop them. How far down can we expect to be in introducing new technologies by 2030? How large will industry-funded R&D be, and what are the incentives for industry to invest? What level of government funding will be needed?. Who will provide the funds (tax revenues, govt budgets), and do earmarked taxes on aviation to be spent on aviation R&D make sense ? Will government rely on free riders (US relying on Europe, Europe relying on the US)?